Every once and
awhile, not often, but once and awhile, Paul Krugman slips in an observation in
his otherwise terrible analysis that makes sense. He did it again on Sunday:
[S]erious analyses of the Reagan-era
business cycle place very little weight on Reagan, and emphasize instead the
role of the Federal Reserve, which sets monetary policy and is largely independent
of the political process. At the beginning of the 1980s, the Fed, under the
leadership of Paul Volcker, was determined to bring inflation down, even at a
heavy price; it tightened policy, sending interest rates sky high, with
mortgage rates going above 18 percent. What followed was a severe recession
that drove unemployment to double digits but also broke the wage-price spiral.
Then the Fed decided that America had
suffered enough. It loosened the reins, sending interest rates plummeting and
housing starts soaring. And the economy bounced back. Reagan got the political
credit for “morning in America,” but Mr. Volcker was actually responsible for
both the slump and the boom.
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