Monday, January 19, 2015

US Interest Rates Bottomed in 2012
The recent dip in interest rates have caused many to hold the view that interest rates are now at new lows, but this is not the case. The bottom on 10-year Treasury securities, for example, was more than two years ago on July 25, 2012.

You can't know precisely what the future holds, but given the amount on money the Federal Reserve has printed since the 2008 financial crisis and the likelihood that price inflation indexes will show strong acceleration once oil prices stop falling, there is a strong possibility that the July 2012 low in interest rates was indeed a significant bottom and that rates are now in the early stages of a multi-year climb.

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